Comparing Starting rotations and bull pens is a much harder job, and we can already see the Rangers are not the leading hitters or fielders. While nobody likes excuses, the fact is that the Rangers have three starting pitchers under contract that are on the disabled list, and the team ace is done for this year and probably part of the next. There is a very good article quoting Justin Verlander from the Detroit Tigers discussing Tommy John surgery, and he says team are coddling these pitchers too much. He says they should work the heck out of them in the minors, and if things blow up fix it then. That would eliminate this type of thing going forward. Then again Matt Harrison has multiple back issues and surgeries and nobody knows if a comeback can happen after that. However, there is one scenario that could be interesting. What if Matt Harrison and Martin Perez managed to rehab to the point that they are ready after the all-star break? That would certainly be better than any trade conceivable.
Here we go using much the same methodology as with the hitting, but let’s go with starting pitching.
Career Numbers ERA W L OppAvg WHIP IP
(TEX)Yovani Gallardo 3.69 89 64 .247 1.30 1289 Last season 8-11 with a 3.51 ERA
(HOU)Dallas Keuchel 4.16 21 27 .275 1.37 439 Last season 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA
(ANA)Jared Weaver 3.28 265 265 .235 1.35 1688 Last season 18-9 with a 3.59 ERA
(OAK)Sonny Gray 2.99 19 13 .228 1.17 283
(SEA)Felix Hernandez 3.07 303 303 .239 1.17 2060 Last season 16-6 with a 2.14 ERA
Career Numbers ERA W L OppAvg WHIP IP
(TEX)Derek Holland 4.23 51 38 .260 1.32 819
(HOU)Scott Feldman 4.48 59 68 .267 1.36 1089
(ANA)Garrett Richards 3.66 110 66 .244 1.26 398 Last season 13-4 with a 2.61 ERA
(OAK)Scott Kasmir 4.07 91 79 .249 1.37 1370 Last season 15-9 with a 3.55 ERA
(SEA)Hisashi Iwakuma 3.07 91 77 .236 1.09 524 Last season 15-9 with a 3.52 ERA
Career Numbers ERA W L OppAvg WHIP IP
(TEX)Colby Lewis 4.84 54 58 .268 1.40 894
(HOU)Collin McHugh 4.19 40 34 .247 1.2 202
(ANA)CJ Wilson 3.72 86 62 .240 1.33 1298
(OAK)Jesse Hahn 3.07 14 12 .214 1.21 73
(SEA)James Paxton 2.66 9 4 .211 1.13 98
Career Numbers ERA W L OppAvg WHIP IP
(TEX)Ross Detwiler 3.82 20 32 .271 1.37 471
(HOU)Brett Oberholtzer 3.85 9 18 .276 1.29 215
(ANA)Matt Shoemaker 2.94 16 4 .237 1.0 141
(OAK)Jesse Chavez 4.70 17 23 .266 1.41 380
(SEA)J.A.Happ 4.24 51 53 .261 1.34 840
Career Numbers ERA W L OppAvg WHIP IP
(TEX)Nick Martinez 4.55 5 12 .275 1.46 140
(HOU)Roberto Hernandez 4.60 67 93 .269 1.41 1264
(ANA)Hector Santiago 3.53 14 19 .236 1.36 352
(OAK)Drew Pomeranz 4.24 9 18 .248 1.40 205
(SEA)Taijuan Walker 2.89 3 3 .218 1.21 53
Without Yu Darvish the Rangers do not have a true #1 guy. Clearly both Anaheim and Seattle have a true ace, and their #2 is very good. The summary looks like this:
Average ERA
Texas 4.22
Houston 4.25
Anaheim 3.42
Oakland 3.81
Seattle 3.18
The bull pens and closer situations look good on all of these teams, and all of them have decent depth. Based on paper the Texas Rangers have the 4th best rotation, and 4th best overall staff within their division.
One of the big problems with this entire exercise is trying to measure a guy with 53 innings pitched against another guy with 1300 innings pitched. That assessment is not fair, nor is it realistic. It is the same when measuring a batting average of .300 with 300 at bats, against a guy hitting a career .275 with 5,000 at bats. There is simply not enough of a track record to know, and looking at minor league results means very little.
At this point many are wondering just how bad I am looking at this years team. The truth is that typically numbers don’t lie, and the 2015 Rangers are just going to have to outperform the numbers. On paper there is no way a team ranked 4th in pitching, defense, and hitting is going to win a division. However, the Rangers have a ton of young talent, much of it unproven so anything is possible. Plus, it is possible that the Rangers may have a huge overload of starting pitching depending on how soon Matt Harrison and Martin Perez can return. Anything is possible, because everyone has the same record today. If you are a realist then the Rangers project a fourth place finish, but I am not and never have been.
According to the first power ranking the Rangers are ranked as the 26th team in all of baseball to start the season. Without a bona-fide ace, this team is simply not as good, but with a whole bunch of health, youth, and players looking for contracts the potential is there. My heart says the team will be competitive, and give everyone a run, but the realist in me says 77 wins. There is a line from the movie Major League from coach Lou, when he says “I’m not one for giving inspirational speeches, but I would like to point out that every major sportswriter in the country has picked us dead last, and I’d like to give them a great big stink burger to eat”. I cleaned it up to keep this rated G, but I agree with Lou!
Whatever you, the experts, or whomever else thinks, they have 162 games to figure it out, so let’s all get on the band wagon and enjoy the ride! It is opening day ya’ll!!!!!