Just a few weeks ago I posted an article on some thoughts of what the Rangers should do at the trade deadline. On June 30 the Rangers had the best record in baseball with 51 wins, and were on top of the world. Many questioned my strong stance on making trades, and who or what to acquire at that time. After all the team was the best in baseball, but as I pointed out, the team was without 3/5 of the starting rotation, and the bullpen was still inconsistent. Those facts have not changed, but not many wins have come since then, in fact there have been 4 wins, that is it.
With bad weather you get three levels, a watch, a warning, and an alert. I called for a collapse watch on June 30, it is time to elevate that to a full-blown warning.
How do you feel about the team now considering over the past 20 days or so, the team’s starting pitching ERA the league worst during that stretch?
Many of you are saying. but Yu Darvish is back, and with Hamels, Darvish, and Perez we should be good. Take a step back for a second, put down the Jose Cuervo, and let’s get a reality check. Hamels is a true ace, but even he has two losses this year. Darvish is fragile, and could easily break again. Perez has shown signs of inconsistency too, and if that sinker he throws stays up in the zone that is very bad news. This team needs 45 more wins, and there is no realistic math that could demonstrate what the Rangers have now in starting pitching can deliver those wins.
If you think Kyle Lohse and A.J. Griffin are going to be the answers to this mess, I would remind you that other teams could have picked them up too. Another reality is that Chi Chi Gonzales and Nick Martinez have had a couple of years to shine, and have disappointed, just as Nick Tepesch did who has now been signed to a minor league contract with Kansas City. The Rangers need innings eaters down the stretch, guys who you can count on to keep you in the game for 6 innings. And outside of Hamels I do not see any other pitcher on the team now that can consistently do that for another 15 starts.
At best this pitching staff can be patched together. With a high degree of optimism one could predict say 10 quality starts from Darvish, and maybe Perez, and 15 for Hamels. That is a total of at best 35 quality starts, and with the team needing 45 more wins, that simply is to few. The numbers show that a team has a high probability of a win with each quality start, that does not mean that they will win, but they at least have a chance to win. To play the odds, the team must increase the quality of starting pitching and increase that to at least 45 quality starts for the reminder of the season, and even then you have to have some luck, and a blessing from the God’s of baseball.
So what do the Rangers do? Do they trade of their future in Joey Gallo, Lewis Brinson, and Jurickson Profar? Do they sell some other young players to win now? Is it panic time in Texas or just a prolific slump?
If a trade can be made similar to the deal last year for a Cole Hamels, you have to do that. That means if there is a pitcher, catcher, or outfielder available, you have to look at that. Why? Because the Rangers have control over Hamels for several years so why wait on a prospect or two to maybe hit, when you can have a proven guy today! That is especially true if the player is still young and in their prime. Renting players for a playoff run has never worked out well for the Rangers. Those guys playing for a contract never mesh well with the team and have no motivation to do that, they just want their numbers for their next contract, and the team has to give up to much for the rental. To build a team it is best to have guys under control with contracts for a number of years, which gives the franchise time to develop more young players. That is why I proposed going after a Chris Sale, he is under contract and could potentially give the team a third ace for a stretch run.
Yes I would trade Joey Gallo, Nick Martinez, and Chi Chi for Chris Sale, and I would throw in a player to be named or two if they would ship us a decent relief pitcher too. With a starting rotation of Sale, Hamels, Darvish and Perez, there is no doubt the Rangers take the division.
It is time to face facts, Colby Lewis and Derek Holland are not going to be of any more help this season. That is the horrible truth, I like both of them, and I think that Colby Lewis was the leader of the pitching staff and one of the reasons the entire staff fell apart when he left. As to the bullpen, they should go get Chapman from the Yankees as long as they do not have to trade Profar.
While we are at it, I think it is time for Prince Fielder to either come out of his slump, or head to the mysterious DL just as Derek Holland did. It is time for the franchise to make some moves, and if the look on Jeff Bannisters face the last couple of nights mean anything at all, then that needs to happen soon. Clearly he has lost his patience with pitchers who lose control in the fourth inning. I am also beginning to question Doug Brocail as pitching coach too, because this is getting insane. These pitchers need to throw some strikes, and those strikes need to not leave the ballpark. They also need to be able to go through an opponents lineup at least twice.
I hear of other guys names being mentioned like Matt Moore, and a few others. Those guys in my view are mediocre 4 or 5 rotation guys. They may have once been something, but Griffin and Lohse used to be good too.
John Daniels, you have my blessing to go make a trade for a solid pitcher, who is under contract and can make a difference to this team. Get us a guy who can last more than 4 innings too please. If you can get another power arm for the bullpen that would be nice. Keep Profar if you can, but everything else is trade bait.
This team will win no more than 35% of the remaining games if something dramatic does not happen. It is no time to panic, but there is opportunity out there if Daniels is brave enough, and ownership is willing to spend just a little more. Keep in mind if you add Sale, then Holland and Lewis salary’s can go next year. I have no idea if he would come to Texas and play in the heat, but he would be playing for a contender now! That has to be attractive.
Well I am sticking with my view from just a few weeks ago, please feel free to argue with me.
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