This is a very difficult team to figure out heading into the 2026 season. Key figures from the 2023 championship roster are gone, but much of the core remains intact. The pitching staff looks similar to last year’s, with several new pieces added to the bullpen. After finishing 2025 at an even .500 with 81 wins, the question becomes: will this team take a step forward or backward?
Spring training doesn’t mean much when it comes to predicting hard numbers or trends. What it can do is provide insight into a team’s character, depth, and potential—it lays the foundation for how the season may unfold. By all accounts, Skip Schumaker is bringing a new leadership style. Considering the team’s youth and the lackadaisical play at times last season, that’s a welcome change. This is not a knock-on Bruce Bochy, who brought a consummate professional approach. Schumaker, however, appears focused on keeping the team energized and engaged. Managers don’t fix roster holes, but they can. optimize effort, improve clubhouse culture, slightly improve situational play. They can’t, make an injured core healthy, turn weak positions into strengths.
Will that make a difference over 162 games? Possibly. If you watched the World Baseball Classic, you saw intense, fiery competition—especially from teams like Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. Maintaining that level of energy across a full MLB season is unrealistic, but even a slight boost in daily motivation can translate into results. It might mean four or five extra wins, snapping a losing streak sooner, or sustaining momentum during a hot stretch.
Pitching was the clear strength of this team in 2025, as the Rangers posted the best ERA in baseball. Yet the results didn’t always follow. The team went 17–24 in one-run games and struggled to mount comebacks after the fifth inning, finishing with the 18th-lowest total of comeback wins in MLB. There was no true closer, and despite several new bullpen additions, that issue remains unresolved heading into 2026.
The rotation depends heavily on Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom, both of whom I consider true aces. In fact, I would take a staff built around two aces and a patchwork bullpen over many others across the league. It is ironic—after years of struggling to pitch, the Rangers now excel on the mound but have been unable to hit consistently over the past two seasons.
Health is always a factor, but this roster carries more risk than most. Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Kyle Higashioka, and Evan Carter have all struggled with durability. The same can be said for deGrom and Eovaldi, who are no longer young. Expecting this group to stay healthy for a full 162 games would be unrealistic. That’s not just “some injury risk.” That’s the entire ceiling tied to durability outliers. If even 2–3 of these guys misses significant time (which history suggests is likely), all projections for wins starts looking optimistic.
That’s where the youth movement comes into play. Several young players turned heads this spring with strong performances. While most will likely start in the minors to ensure consistent playing time, they represent critical depth when injuries arise—as they inevitably will. Names like Aaron Zavala, Richie Martin, Cameron Cauley, Jonah Bride, and Tyler Wade stood out, along with several young pitchers. Expect many of them to see time in Arlington at some point this season.
The lineup itself won’t look drastically different from last year’s, but there are key decisions looming. Joc Pederson is a major one. His spring performance mirrors last season’s struggles, and his contract is quickly becoming a liability. With little trade value, the Rangers may be better off cutting ties early rather than risking another prolonged slump. Andrew McCutchen appears to have been signed as insurance for this exact scenario. At this stage, sending a message and giving another player an opportunity could be the smarter move. The team cannot afford another extended drought like Pederson’s 0-for-41 stretch last year.
At catcher, there are concerns as well. Danny Jansen is unlikely to provide strong everyday production, and Higashioka has already dealt with injuries. Teams rarely contend without stability behind the plate—it’s arguably the most demanding position in baseball. Looking back at the Rangers’ most successful seasons (2011–2012 and 2023), strong catching played a key role both offensively and defensively. This remains a major weakness.
Ultimately, the 2026 Rangers are a high-risk, high-reward team. On paper, the talent is there. In reality, it’s a fragile group of veterans with limited proven depth behind them. Remember the “Little Rascals” stretch last season, when injuries forced the team to call up a wave of young players—and they started winning? That wasn’t a fluke. This team must find a way to blend youth with experience early and often if they hope to compete. Expect plenty of roster turnover and opportunities for younger players throughout the season. Young players bring:
• Energy
• Aggression on the bases
• Less “three true outcomes” hitting
• Better adaptability
Veteran-heavy, injury-prone teams often accidentally discover their identity through youth. If Schumaker leans into that early (not just as injury replacements), the ceiling rises.
Position-by-Position Outlook:
• Starting Pitching: Similar production
• Relief Pitching: Comparable to last year
• 1B: Slight improvement from Jake Burger
• 2B: Slight improvement from Josh Smith
• SS: No change—health is key for Corey Seager; increased DH time is possible
• 3B: Decline—Josh Jung’s durability remains a concern, and depth is limited
• C: Decline—hard to imagine, but likely
• RF: Significant improvement—Brandon Nimmo adds a major boost
• CF: Improvement—Wyatt Langford continues to develop
• LF: Likely decline, though minor league depth could help offset injuries
• DH: Major improvement if Andrew McCutchen replaces Joc Pederson
• Bench: Significantly improved
Even with those positives, there are too many holes—potentially at third base, catcher, left field, and DH. That’s nearly half the lineup. Teams can survive with one or two weak spots, but not four. Lineup Construction Problems (Still Not Fixed)
1. Left-handed imbalance; Still vulnerable vs LHP, Predictable outcomes late in games
2. Catcher production; Probably bottom-tier offensively, huge issue for contender status
3. Joc Pederson situation; If Joc Pederson repeats 2025 → immediate negative WAR slot
Andrew McCutchen as fallback is smart, but also not a long-term solution
4. Poor situational hitting, bullpen instability, no defined closer, weak late offense
Key strengths:
1. Depth and youth of starting pitching
2. Solid potential contributors starting season in the minors for both hitting and pitching
3. Possible mid-season boost from Jordan Montgomery and others
4. The fact that these players have proven success in the past
5. Management and hitting style changes and approach to the game
The division doesn’t make things any easier. The Seattle Mariners remain strong and are the defending division champions. The Houston Astros is steady, if not improved. The Los Angeles Angels are better but still not quite contenders. The Oakland A’s are quietly building something impressive and may already be the best offensive team in the division.
For the Rangers to compete—either for the division or a wild card—everything must go right. Last year’s 81 wins could have easily been more; just a handful of additional runs in close games might have pushed them to 90+. However, Globe Life Field now plays more like a pitcher’s park, making offensive improvements even more critical.
This team must adjust its approach. Analytics have their place, but this lineup needs to focus on getting on base, manufacturing runs, and playing situational baseball. Too often, the offense has relied on home runs, resulting in strikeouts or unproductive outs. A shift toward small ball—bunting, moving runners, stealing bases—could make a significant difference. Whether the team can successfully adopt that philosophy under a new hitting coach remains to be seen.
If you watched Team USA in the WBC final, you saw a microcosm of the Rangers’ recent struggles: too many left-handed hitters, impatience at the plate, and difficulty executing against quality pitching. That issue hasn’t been fully addressed. The lineup still leans heavily left-handed and struggles against left-handed pitching.
Vegas has set the over/under at 83.5 wins, with optimism largely tied to health. Some analysts project as many as 90 wins. I see it differently. Given the injury risks and lineup concerns, I project closer to 75 wins. By the trade deadline, the front office may pivot toward restocking a farm system that has been depleted by recent trades.
One final factor: the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires at the end of the season. If the Rangers fall out of contention, Chris Young and ownership could initiate a sell-off to shed payroll before a new agreement. That makes a strong start essential—if this team isn’t competitive by the All-Star break, significant changes could follow.
In the end, I’m just not seeing it this year. The games should still be entertaining—the starting pitching alone will keep them competitive most nights. But the lack of consistent run production, weak catching, and overall fragility of the roster are too much to overlook.
🟢Best Case (Everything clicks)
• Health mostly holds
• Youth contributes early
• Bullpen stabilizes
88–92 wins (Wild Card contender)
🟡 Realistic Middle
• Normal injuries
• Inconsistent offense
• Continued bullpen volatility
78–83 wins
🔴 Downside (Very plausible)
• Key injuries pile up
• Offense stagnates again
• Deadline sell-off
72–76 wins
The Texas Rangers are a high-variance team with a low floor and a conditional ceiling, and unless; health breaks unusually right, or youth is integrated earlier than expected then 75 wins is a very defensible prediction. Feel free to send your feedback and argue all the points, I wish I felt more optimistic but I don’t.
