It’s that time of year baseball fans! The All-Star game is behind us and there are just three short weeks left before the non-waiver trade deadline. The rumor mill has already begun to churn, and despite the fact that Team President and CEO, and part Owner Nolan Ryan said he’d be surprised to see a Cliff Lee type impact trade, speculation is already running rampant that we may see just that! General Manager Jon Daniels has proven that he gets bored just sitting on his hands at the trade deadline, making big deals the last two years while in contention, but also being in the conversation for former Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay in 2009 before he said he wouldn’t waive his no trade clause for Texas. JD hasn’t been in the position he is currently in however, not having a clear weakness to address. That being said, there are several players being linked to the two time defending American League champions. First off are rentals, free agents to be Cole Hamel and Zack Greinke. Daniels has been linked to Greinke in the past, rumored to be the runner up before he was shipped to Milwaukee for a plethora of prospects (rumor has it the Royals preferred not to keep Greinke in the American League). However, talk is that the Rangers prefer 2009 World Series MVP Cole Hamels. While the Rangers currently have a full rotation with Derek Holland and Colby Lewis returning from the DL, and Roy Oswalt being called up from his “Summer Training”, the old cliché is you can never have too much pitching. Hamels has been there before and is a bona fide ace. As strong as the Rangers current rotation is, adding Cole Hamels would make them the prohibitive favorite to return to the World Series.
Also newsworthy is that Arizona GM Kevin Towers stated that he will “listen” to offers for Superstar outfielder Justin Upton. If I were Jon Daniels I would make acquiring Upton my number one priority. He is under contract (at a reasonable cost) through 2015, and is only 24 years old. He is a middle of the order bat who can steal bases as well. He is also an excellent defensive corner outfielder. In the scenario that Josh Hamilton walks after the season, Upton would be a fine replacement, but by no means does his acquisition mean that the Rangers wouldn’t bring Josh back. He would make a terrific complement to Josh in the lineup and absolutely solidify the middle of the order. An Upton-Hamilton-Cruz outfield would be one of the most prolific offensive and defensive outfields in all of baseball. It also provides insurance of injury in the short term, or the loss of Hamilton (free agent after this year, obviously) or Cruz (free agent after 2013).
What would it take to acquire one of these star players? This is just speculation on my behalf, but the Rangers seem hell bent on keeping Jurickson Profar, a consensus top two prospect in all of baseball, so talks would begin with breakout star Double A Frisco third baseman Mike Olt. Olt was highly regarded coming into the season, coming off a remarkable Arizona Fall League performance, but his stock has been on the rise this year as he has dominated AA, leading the league in most power categories, making the All-Star team and representing the US in the Futures game as well. The Rangers have developed talent all over the diamond and would be able to supplement Mike Olt with a plethora of high ceiling talent. I would package along with Mike Olt left hander Robbie Ross. While it may seem like blasphemy to Ranger fans the way Ross has pitched this far, his stock will never be higher. He is a lights out reliever and long term is viewed as an inning eating mid rotation starter. Arizona will want a Mark Teixeria type package for Upton (and considering the additional two years of club control, he would be well worth it) so the trade could not end there. I would pack on starting prospect Justin Grimm, who has already proven he can succeed against a major league lineup. While his disaster against Detroit may linger to some, you can credit bad luck on the result. He was able to throw strikes, the balls were just finding holes. He is a 23 year old with the upside of at least a mid-rotation starter. I would also include Leury Garcia in the deal. He is a lighting bug of a shortstop. He is a plus plus runner and a terrific defensive shortstop. He has shown great improvement with the bat this year, and while he will never profile as having much pop, he looks to be a poor man’s Elvis Andrus. Unfortunately for Leury, he is behind Elvis and Profar on the organizational depth chart. Finally, I would include one last piece, someone like Michael Kirkman, Tanner Scheppers, or Miguel de los Santos. That’s five strong pieces for the Superstar right fielder. I wouldn’t hesitate to include one more C+ prospect if that’s what it took to get the deal done. While that may sound like a lot consider this: when Upton was drafted he was mentioned in the same breath as Ken Griffey, Jr. and Alex Rodriguez based on pure talent alone, and you are getting him for four pennant runs. Remember when Justin Smoak, Blake Beaven, Matt Lawson, and Josh Lueke? Flags fly forever and sometimes prospects don’t pan out. Texas and Arizona match up extremely well. You could argue that we are “overpaying” or “outbidding ourselves”, but this isn’t a situation where Arizona has to make a deal, this is them saying they will trade their young Superstar for a package that will help them take the next step, they don’t have to trade him by any chance. This is the reason you build a top farm system, to build a team, and once that team is built to continue to supplement your core with more championship caliber players.
But what about Cole Hamels? That’s a lot talent for an outfielder when we already have an elite offense. That’s the beauty of being loaded on the farm. Hamels will come much cheaper, and with the new CBA Philly may not be able to acquire even a top notch prospect. Look at last year’s Carlos Beltran trade for example. San Francisco was not going to get any compensation picks so the Mets had less leverage in a trade. Philly will just need something better than two draft picks in the 16-35 range in next year’s draft, if they feel they can not sign Hamels to an extension (or what if they do come to terms on an extension, but trade him anyway for prospects and then sign the contract in the offseason?) Anyway, the Rangers still have plenty of chips to play with. My assumption is it will take one second tier prospect and one or two third tier prospects, and I mean this from the Ranger’s perspective. A second tier prospect in Texas would be a top tier prospect in at least half the other team’s systems. I would start with one of Leonys Martin or Martin Perez. Either loss would hurt, but flags fly forever. We could afford to lose either because the depth we have in the rotation now, and the starters we have in the minors who could step up in the next few years anyway (Perez). Also, if we just acquired Justin Upton, there is less need for Leonys Martin. After one of those I believe a combination of two third tier prospects in the ilk of Hanser Alberto and Wilmer Font could do the trick. It may not be the haul Philadelphia originally wanted but it would be more than most teams could offer.
In summary: Texas acquires Justin Upton from Arizona in exchange for Mike Olt, Robbie Ross, Justin Grimm, Leury Garcia, and Tanner Scheppers. Then Texas acquires Cole Hamels from Philadelphia in exchange for Martin Perez, Hanser Alberto, and Wilmer Font.
Which team says no in either scenario? Is it too much? Is it not enough? Either way these moves would set Texas up for the short term (Hamels), and the long term (Upton). This doesn’t even include the reinforcements on the way in the form of Alexi Ogando, Colby Lewis, Neftali Feliz, Koji Uehara, and Mark Lowe. How does this 25 man playoff roster look?
Cole Hamels
Yu Darvish
Colby Lewis
Matt Harrison
Roy Oswalt
Mark Lowe
Koji Uehara
Derek Holland
Neftali Feliz
Alexi Ogando
Mike Adams
Joe Nathan
Ian Kinsler
Elvis Andrus
Josh Hamilton
Adrian Beltre
Justin Upton
Nelson Cruz
Mike Young
Mike Napoli
Mitch Moreland
David Murphy
Craig Gentry
Yorvit Torrealba
Alberto Gonzalez
Ross can be found on twitter @mavsfan1310 and can be heard on The Ranger Report Extra Inning Podcast.
