The first game of the season is quickly approaching, and ready or not the defending World Series Champion Texas Rangers are about to defend their title.
Repeats are difficult in every sport at every level. Last year, I thought I was overly aggressive in predicting an 89-win season. It turned out that I was more right than wrong since they essentially ended in a first-place tie with 90 wins. I expected them to be a wild card team and they were. What I did not expect, and frankly I am still in a bit of shock is the unbelievable playoff run of winning road games in the playoffs. WOW!
2024 is an all-new season and the records of the past are irrelevant.
Before I make my 2024 prediction, I want to review how I see the team.
Essentially, the entire complement of everyday players have all returned. This was one of the best hitting lineups in baseball last year. The lineup will still include a mix of outstanding veterans, and outstanding young players with a sprinkling of some rookies most likely to make the final roster. There have been early injuries to Josh Jung, Corey Seager, and Nathanial Lowe. This is just creating some opportunities for some guys to be the next man up. That philosophy carried through all of last year as injuries mounted, as players were rotating in and out of the DL list. This team will still hit the ball, and hitting can win a lot of regular season games. Wyatt Langford will make the opening day roster and Justin Foscue will make an appearance soon.
Starting pitching, Jacob deGrom was the opening day starter last year and only lasted a few games before being out for the season. The other starters stepped up and in fact were one of the best starting rotations in baseball all season. Again, there are rookies and some second-year players with veterans mixed in to the starting rotation until Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, and maybe even Jacob deGrom return. That means Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney, Dunning, and Bradford will have to carry on and eat some innings. All doable and as strong a rotation as anyone else in baseball with the knowledge that help is eventually coming. To start the season though this is the team’s weakest position.
The bullpen last year was a hot mess at times, but arrived just in time for the playoffs. This year there are not that many changes, but a healthy Jose Leclerc, and Josh Sporz early certainly will help. The additions of Kerby Yates and David Robertson are definite upgrades. I expect a bunch of others to make appearances based on spring training results some younger players will be seen during the season but I believe the bullpen is improved, but not elite.
Bruce Bochy is the best manager in Texas Rangers history and probably one of the top 5 in all of baseball. He knows how to win.
It would have been better had the Rangers added another starting pitcher named Montgomery, but we all need to let that go.
All of that means this team has the chance to be special and win a lot of games. However, within the AL West the competition shows Houston is improved, and so are the Mariners.
There is reason to believe, baring massive injuries, that this team will be just as competitive as they were last year. However, the April schedule is flat out brutal on paper. They play Tampa who will be looking to avenge their playoff exit, then Houston and that rivalry might draw blood, the A’s, the Astros again, the Tigers, Braves, those 3 series all on the road, then the Mariners, Reds, and Nationals. That is a tough schedule since all but the Tigers, Reds, Mariners, and Reds made the playoffs and all those teams are improved.
You do not win a division in April and May, but you can eliminate yourself.
It will be a tough start for the franchise, but if they can play .500 in April and May, they can do anything.
My expectations are another 90-wins but my realistic prediction is only 87 wins. There are just a lot of question marks, and health matters, but I do think they will compete for another playoff spot, and as we know once you are in the tournament anything can happen.
Rangers Predictions
